Dunno

At work over the weekend I attempted to solve a a couple of conundrums.

After dropping some hip hoppers in Newtown on Saturday for the Nas concert I was immediately struck by the early evening crowd on the street, heading out to celebrate Halloween. Most were attired in elaborate horror, witches and gothic costumes making for a real Mardi Gras like festive atmosphere, in basic black.

And I thought, Newtown’s dominant demographic of students, left wing progressives, media and arts types, gays, and assorted variations of all, may be the most avowed anti-American crowd in the country. Yet here they were embracing an American festival with gusto. Why is it so?

Later I mentioned this puzzle to a young woman in the cab. She explained that it had nothing to do with America per se, but rather the fancy dressers were celebrating paganism and the chance to have some fun.

Thus I reached the conclusion that a celebration of paganism is, by definition, a fun protest against Christianity, hence Newtown’s lusty adoption of Halloween.

Maybe that’s simplistic or maybe I’m reading too much into this phenomenon, I dunno.

My second mystery arose after a passenger encounter with an ABC staffer from their science department. Her section was responsible for the science portfolio across their various platforms, including the popular television program, Catalyst.

Ah, Catalyst,” I chuckled. “At home we call that the ‘maybe' show.” I explained how every week we look for the heavy qualifiers which litter most segments and how conclusive answers are rarely found for issues which are presented in the style of open-and-shut cases.

To wit, ‘If that occurs then scientists say this may be the outcome, leading to the possible destruction of...blah, blah. So there you have it.' This is supposition masquerading as fact and somewhat embarrassing for an award winning show.

"Well,” my passenger offered, “that’s just the nature of science where it’s often quite difficult to predict definitive outcomes.” Fair enough, a perfectly plausible answer. Yet it begged a glaring follow-up inquiry pertaining to Catalyst’s favourite topic, climate change.

At the time I recall half-heartedly alluding to this but didn’t have the nerve to press the issue. My intuition warned that our relaxed chat to that point would rapidly deteriorate and the trip end badly.

However the question remains: in recognising that science is an imprecise discipline, this relegates the science of climate change from being conclusively ‘in’, to more accurately a ‘maybe’ status, surely.

Accordingly, why then is Australia poised to sign up next month to a global environmental government with the power to override our basic liberties and way of life, all based on ‘maybe’ science?

I just don’t know.

Comments

[James]

Is "students, left wing progressives, media and arts types, gays, and assorted variations of all" that true any more?

I lived there for nearly ten years (1990s to early 2000s) and it was a changing demographic then - lots of young professional (doctors, allied health, financial, IT) couples with new babies buying up cottages at huge prices.

When I left most of the students now seemed to live in Marrickville and St Peters because it was a lot cheaper. I think Erskineville might still be a bit of a lefty bastion - I cite the Erskineville Primary fete I was at a couple of years ago. :)

[Sarah]

The real pagans danced round the may pole this weekend in celebration of Beltane. Not Samhain. Halloween - regardless of the American tradition is a season based festival and is backwards for us southern hemisphere people.

[Aleksey]

"recognising that science is an imprecise discipline"
In fact your car is all based on science so you can judge is it precise or not. Is it 'maybe' sometimes? :-)

some good story about accuracy:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/09/decadal-predictions/

[HM]

I'd rather trust a scientist who is prepared to admit they don't know everything than a 'sceptic' who is absolutely convinced that they are correct.

[Rainer the cabbie]

Halloween is an original Irish tradition, except that the Americans commercialised it.
Newtowners are the coolest of them all, and a pleasure to have in the cab.
As to Copenhagen and the threat of a one world government, dogmatic and socialist of cause, don't hold your breath. Conservative propaganda; but even if we globalise environmental issues, considering that the world population had tripled in the last 50 years, isn't it time for a global approach in living a cleaner lifestyle?
Don't forget that if it is voted in, even the developing nations must oblige, which in return may level the playing field a bit.
And perhaps save the planet.

[adrian]

Exactly Aleksey, you've identified my embarrassing mistake. Even though I knew something wasn't right with the story I had to retire as my head hurt.

Of course science can be very precise, except for those disciplines involving theory and unreliable or lack of evidence, such as economics, psychiatry and climate study.

Rainer, it seems the arguments for and against Copenhagen will be rendered academic with news that the US, China and India won't be in a position to sign the Treaty.

But yes, climate awareness must be unified, though determining what level of political and economic action is warranted whilst relying on 'maybe' science is a major problem.

[Giselle]

Hi Adrian,

Don't mind sharing, what made you decide to be a cabby? What were you working as before this job? Do you enjoy being one?

THis is the first time I've visited your blog and it's very cool. Great blog. Keep it up. :)

[nyctaxiphoto]

meh, all holidays here an america at least, for that's all I can truly talk about, as that as all I can pretend- to be -certain- about, are really just trumped up ways to spend consumer money on flimsy pointless products, and to engage our youth in the same traditions, to keep our companies' profits rising, however, I can never be -certain- of such a thing.

I think it's been said that only fools are sure of things. And yeah Halloween seems neither pagan nor religious to me. But it does look awesome when people create their own costumes.

[crjc]

Global warming science is entirely speculative, and is used mostly to fulfill political rather than scientific purposes. It's that treaty and all the new taxes and powers that Big Government wants, whether the unproven science is correct or not.

You are quite correct that these are pagans. Most of the science-by-consensus crowd practice what St. Augustine identified as natural idolatry. The Environment is a pagan idol, and they want us all to make enormous sacrifices to their favourite false god. Won't do us a bit of good if we do.

[brendo]

Haven't read/commented here in a while great stuff. I'm a little alarmed by the anti-science vibe in this post. I can't say it as well as david deutsch, so have a look at his short TED talk on why science isn't perfect, but is very good. Sure we don't know exactly 100% what's happening in the future. Science has actually shown us the futility of wanting that. The key to understanding what science is good/bad at is understanding the nature of complexity - which is to say, the number/nature of variables in a problem. And that's what the david deutsch talk is good at couching. So, have a look if you like: http://www.ted.com/talks/david_deutsch_a_new_way_to_explain_explanation.html

[adrian]

Brendo, interesting link but too heavy for me. I'm not anti-science per se, but rather a Catalyst sceptic regarding their examination of topics which often fail to live up to the presenter's hype. Such misleading presentation reduces this science show to entertainment, first and foremost.